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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."