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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.